Aviation Chould be in Danger: Falling SPACE JUNK Threatens Flights

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https://www.newsweek.com/air-travel-space-rocket-debris-junk-aviation-2028763

A recent study from the University of British Columbia warns that falling rocket debris poses a significant risk to air travel, with a one-in-four annual chance that space junk will enter busy airspace. The researchers analyzed rocket debris re-entries and global flight data to assess the likelihood of such incidents, emphasizing that both air travel and commercial rocket launches are increasing, exacerbating the problem.

The study revealed that regions with high air traffic density, such as areas with at least 10 percent of peak air traffic (seen over Denver, Colorado), have a 26 percent chance per year of experiencing a rocket debris re-entry. While the odds of a direct collision between space junk and an aircraft remain low—about one in 430,000 annually—scientists caution that these risks will rise as more satellites and spacecraft are launched.

Rocket stages left in low orbits often re-enter the atmosphere uncontrollably, with most of the debris burning up before reaching the ground. However, some fragments survive and pose potential threats to populated areas and commercial aviation. In 2023 alone, 258 successful rocket launches resulted in a record 120 uncontrolled rocket debris re-entries, with over 2,300 rocket bodies still in orbit.

Air travel has already been disrupted by space debris. In 2022, a 20-ton fragment of a falling rocket forced the closure of parts of French and Spanish airspace. More recently, the explosion of a SpaceX Starship after launch demonstrated the challenges of suddenly needing to close airspace to prevent accidents. Scientists argue that such incidents highlight the need for better debris management policies in space operations.

One of the study's authors, physicist Dr. Aaron Boley, criticized the current approach, stating that uncontrolled rocket body re-entries are a "design choice, not a necessity." He emphasized that rockets could be designed for controlled re-entry, eliminating the need for aviation authorities to decide whether to close airspace or risk potential disaster. Boley warned that without intervention, the space industry would continue shifting its risks onto airlines and passengers.

Political scientist and co-author Professor Michael Byers echoed these concerns, calling for coordinated international regulations to enforce better rocket design standards. "Countries and companies that launch satellites won't spend the money to improve their rocket designs unless all of them are required to do so," he said. Byers urged governments to adopt stricter regulations to prevent further risks to global air travel.

As space traffic increases, experts argue that implementing controlled rocket re-entries is essential to mitigate aviation risks. Without international cooperation, air travelers and airlines will continue facing disruptions from falling debris, and the chances of a catastrophic event may grow in the coming years.