Why the US can't send humans to MARS
Humans have long imagined life on Mars, but despite decades of technological advancements, the US has yet to send a crewed mission to the Red Planet. The idea of human exploration of Mars has been a recurring ambition since the mid-20th century, yet it remains an elusive goal. Earlier this month, NASA announced funding for a revolutionary high-thrust rocket—the Pulsed Plasma Rocket—that could drastically reduce travel time to Mars from nine months to just two. This breakthrough could significantly lower mission risks and costs. However, history has shown that technology alone is not the only obstacle preventing humans from reaching Mars. Political shifts, funding limitations, and logistical challenges have repeatedly pushed back the timeline, making the dream of a crewed Mars mission seem perpetually just out of reach.
This phenomenon has become something of a running joke among space experts. "Putting humans on Mars is always 20 years away," says Matthew Shindell, a curator at the National Air and Space Museum. The timeline is long enough that political and economic circumstances change before missions can gain sustained momentum, leading to repeated delays and shifting priorities. The US has poured money and time into Mars exploration, successfully sending more robotic missions there than any other country. Yet, the challenge of sending humans has proven far more complex.
The first serious plan for a human mission to Mars emerged in the 1950s, led by Wernher von Braun. Known for his role in developing the V-2 missile during World War II, von Braun later became a pivotal figure in the US space program. He envisioned a 260-day mission launching in 1985, featuring 10 spacecraft and a 70-person crew. Though it remained speculative at the time, his calculations laid the groundwork for future mission proposals.
By the 1960s, optimism for space exploration was at its peak. In 1962, German rocket scientist Ernst Stuhlinger proposed a fleet of five crewed ships to reach Mars by the early 1980s. Simultaneously, physicist Freeman Dyson and nuclear weapons expert Theodore Taylor developed Project Orion, which sought to power a Mars-bound spaceship using controlled nuclear explosions. Their ambitious plan proposed a 12-year development timeline, but concerns about nuclear detonation risks and the 1963 Limited Test Ban Treaty effectively ended the project.
As NASA focused its efforts on landing humans on the Moon, Mars missions took a backseat. However, the agency still sought to gather more information about the planet. In 1964, NASA launched the Mariner 4 probe, which provided humanity’s first close-up images of Mars, revealing a barren, cratered landscape. The new data forced scientists to reconsider assumptions about the planet’s habitability, further complicating plans for human exploration.
The 1980s saw renewed interest in Mars exploration. In 1985, astronaut Sally Ride was tasked with outlining NASA’s future objectives, proposing a crewed Mars mission by 2005. However, achieving this goal would have required tripling NASA’s budget—something that never materialized. In 1989, President George H.W. Bush called for a human mission to Mars within 20 years, but his Space Exploration Initiative faced similar financial roadblocks. Estimated costs of $400 billion to $500 billion proved too high for Congress to support, and the initiative was abandoned by 1993.
The 1990s marked a shift toward robotic exploration, with NASA adopting a "better, faster, cheaper" approach. The decade saw the launch of successful missions like Pathfinder, which deployed the Sojourner rover in 1997, and the Mars Global Surveyor, which provided detailed maps of the Martian surface. However, the agency also suffered setbacks, losing two spacecraft—the Mars Polar Lander and the Mars Climate Orbiter.
By the early 2000s, robotic missions continued to thrive. The twin rovers Spirit and Opportunity, launched in 2004, provided groundbreaking discoveries about Mars’ past water activity. Meanwhile, President George W. Bush introduced the Constellation Program, aiming to return humans to the Moon as a precursor to Mars. However, in 2010, President Barack Obama canceled Constellation, instead setting a vague target for Mars exploration by the 2030s.
In the 2010s, private companies entered the space race, with SpaceX’s Elon Musk announcing ambitious plans for Martian colonization. Musk initially projected sending humans to Mars within a decade, later revising the date to 2029. However, as of now, SpaceX has yet to send a single robotic mission to Mars. Meanwhile, the US government shifted focus once again—President Donald Trump reintroduced a Moon-first strategy with the Artemis Program, aiming to establish a lunar space station as a stepping stone to Mars.
Despite these setbacks, NASA has continued preparations for eventual Mars missions. The Artemis missions, now supported under the Biden administration, are intended to provide critical insights into sustaining human life beyond Earth. NASA’s Mars Campaign Office is also conducting long-term isolation experiments, such as CHAPEA, where volunteers live in a simulated Mars habitat for a year.
Looking ahead to the 2030s and beyond, significant challenges remain. Unlike the Moon, Mars is much farther away, requiring long-duration missions and self-sufficient crews. Communication delays of at least 20 minutes each way will prevent real-time guidance from Earth, meaning astronauts must handle medical emergencies and technical failures independently. Protecting crews from cosmic radiation, developing sustainable food sources, and overcoming Mars’ harsh dust conditions are additional hurdles.
NASA Administrator Bill Nelson has suggested a potential human Mars mission by 2040. However, the timeline remains uncertain. SpaceX and other private entities may attempt independent missions, though whether they will succeed before NASA remains to be seen. As Mars exploration continues to be a daunting challenge, experts liken the process to consuming an elephant—one bite at a time. While humanity’s journey to Mars is still in progress, history has shown that grand ambitions often face political, financial, and technological barriers that push the dream further into the future.
For now, the dream of humans walking on Mars remains just that—a dream. However, with advancing technologies, growing private sector involvement, and continued research, the goal may finally move from science fiction to reality within the next few decades. Until then, the question remains: will Mars always be just 20 years away?
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